Lithium represents one of the key raw materials for implementing the transportation transition. Due to its specific properties, the light metal is not substitutable in current lithium-ion batteries, regardless of the battery composition.
The total demand for lithium is currently still covered by the primary supply from mining production. Thus, the secondary sector does not play a role in this context so far. Looking ahead to 2040, this will change.
Global demand for lithium will increase to approximately 316,300-558,800 t Li-Inh. by 2030, depending on the demand scenario. Furthermore, demand in 2030 will be dominated by the battery sector, especially e-mobility (about 90%). Currently, the battery sector accounts for about 67% of total demand.
Lithium production will need to expand by a factor of 4-7 in the coming years to meet projected demand. This alone will pose enormous challenges for the mining sector and the processing industry. In addition, there are aspects of extraction that are as sustainable as possible.
"Even if all projects currently planned and under construction are implemented on schedule and we assume medium demand growth, we will not have enough lithium to meet the expected global demand in 2030," explains study author Michael Schmidt of the German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at BGR.
In Europe, lithium is not primarily extracted now, but as things stand, there is potential cell manufacturing capacity of up to 1,300 GWh on paper. If such battery cell production were to occur in Europe and especially in Germany in the future, the local industry would be dependent on the import of precursors. The results of the study show that Europe's self-sufficiency in 2030 would only be possible to about 27-34% in the scenario raised. Recycling could only meet about 3-10% of Europe's demand in 2030. Therefore, there would still be a high import dependency. The utilization of European potentials should be given a high priority. Import dependency and the environmental footprint due to long-distance transport could be reduced as a result.
Major uncertainties in forecasts are to be in the current economic challenges on a global level, inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic, China's no-covid strategy, interrupted supply chains as well as the war in Ukraine.